Fraser of Allander Institute, today:
On balance, it’s difficult to conclude anything other than the Scottish economy remains in a fragile position.
Whether or not it will be confirmed in July that we have entered recession is in the balance.
Given the way in which economies operate (and the statistical data is compiled), some form of bounce back is likely at some point. In the short-term, whilst not impossible, the balance of evidence suggest that this is unlikely.
But whatever the next set of GDP data tell us, what is key is the trend over the long-term.
Talk back in 2008 was for the potential of a lost decade of growth. Since 2006, output per head in Scotland has increased by just over 1% (that’s not an average growth rate, that’s the total increase).
With the new fiscal powers coming on stream this year, getting the economy growing again – and on a sustainable basis – will be vital not just for jobs and prosperity, but also our public services.