By Jeremy Blackwell
I started writing this article in totally different state of mind from the one I’m in right now. That was on Saturday, eagerly waiting for the latest polls and keeping track of all the campaign events in Scotland. Then the London Bridge attack happened. Once again terrorists sent the message that they hate our democracy and want to destroy it, especially by interfering in our democratic election process. And they hit London, a city I love despite all its faults.
Fear and hate will lead us nowhere except to a darker future. Today say no to fear and hate and get out to vote massively.
So I will start this last article of my General Election 2017 series with a picture of togetherness, hope and joy. Nicola Sturgeon hugging a wee lad who gave her a homemade card while she was campaigning in Ayr on Saturday.
As the last article, this one has to be the riskiest as we will know only a few hours from now if I was spot on, wildly off or just slightly off. I venture ‘slightly off’. I owe a lot of thanks to Jamie Smith for hosting my articles on his blog. Also lots of thanks to all those who fed me with information and all those who follow me on Twitter.
Of course next week I will perform a post-mortem. I will try to sort out what was right and what was wrong in the polls. And also what was right and what was wrong in my model itself (and the others too).
But first let’s see what scenarios we have right now for this election in Scotland.
Scenario #1: Polls are right
By ‘polls’ I mean here only the few full Scottish polls we had this year. In 2015 Scottish polls were pretty accurate and missed individual parties’ results by at most a share of a percent. So if they perform just as well this year, here are the vote shares we get, based on all full Scottish polls since mid-April. And the range of seats each party would get on such results.
This scenario would be quite good for the SNP, but other parties would not see all of their expectations fulfilled. Except if tactical voting is stronger than expected, which might happen in any scenario anyway.
Scenario #2: No Conservative surge
In this scenario, Conservatives fail to bag the extra votes needed to gain a significant number of seats. Tactical Unionist voting is kept to a minimum, most Labour voters remain faithful to their party and (most importantly) the swing from the SNP to the Conservatives in key regions remains low. That way we get a GE result quite close to the Scottish Parliament 2016 elections. This scenario leaves only seven seats tied or marginal.
This would be the dream scenario for the SNP. As James Kelly reminded us, what matters most in first-past-the-post elections is how far ahead the first party is. And this scenario maximizes the SNP’s lead over the Conservatives. Losses could be kept to a minimum, possibly as low as one or two in Borders and one or two in North East. But Labour still doing well makes gaining Edinburgh South less likely. Sorry for that, Jim.
Scenario #3: Maximum tactical voting
This is the mirror image of #2 and the nightmare scenario for the SNP. It would have the SNP roughly on current polling average. But on top of it, this includes a noticeable swing from the SNP to the Conservatives in key regions. If this is combined with full-blown tactical voting from Labour voters and some LibDems, it spells doom for many SNP MPs. Here we have nine seats tied or marginal, though obviously not the same ones as above. The swingometer has moved deeper into SNP-leaning territory and some unexpected losses may happen like East Dunbartonshire, Stirling, North East Fife or Ochil and South Perthshire.
Please note that this ‘doomsday scenario’ still has SNP winning 70-75% of Scottish seats. I know many governing parties in Europe who would welcome that kind of ‘defeat’. Anyway, after a series of major Conservative trainwreck appearances on various media during the campaign, this is obviously the unlikeliest of all.
Done with scenarios now JB, why not tell us how the actual polling data evolved?
There’s a little bit of my three scenarios is this week’s polls: not too good for the SNP, no real Conservative surge, tactical voting mostly (and surprisngly) favouring Labour with the ‘Corbyn surge’ still alive.
These results are nevertheless still better than could be feared for the SNP who maintain a 14% lead over the Conservatives. And even if Labour are doing better than expected (and very close to their 2015 result), the SNP’s lead in SNP-Lab competitive seats is such that no Labour gains are to be expected.
And now JB, why don’t you tell us what we can actually expect tonight?
The slight changes in polling average have some marginal impact on the seat ratings. Tied seats are now East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh South West, Perth and North Perthshire, Stirling.
And the usual seat-by-seat projections (compared with ScotlandVotes and ElectoralCalculus) and my updated prediction.
I think the SNP will finally do well today, better than some pundits predict. But some symbolic seats will be lost. I still think local factors will see the SNP hold Perth and North Perthshire. But I am not too optimistic about the Edinburgh seats, contrary to my first predictions about them. Organized tactical voting from Unionist parties was tested here last year for the Scottish Parliament elections and it worked. I have a hunch a similar scheme is at work now and will produce fairly similar results: Labour hoding South wille the SNP lose West to LibDems and South West to Conservatives.
But in fact none of the psephologists knows exactky what will happen tonight, even if we like to pretend we do. Always believe the old saying ‘Timeo psephologistos et dona ferentes’. We are just as clueless as our readers are. Perhaps crystal ball and tea leaves would help. Or sacrificing a black goat. In the end, with all we can deduce from statistics and make a great show of it, the best we can come up with is the proverbial best educated guess. Here is what various predictor sites or individual predictors had in store this morning:
And here’s my ‘exit poll’, some hours ahead of the actual one. The best prediction I can offer with all available data and the obvious uncertainty that is part of every election. And that it matches the average of all predictors is pure coincidence. You know how I work so you can take my word for that.
So tonight on 10pm we will know. Don’t forget 48 seats is 80% of the Scottish representation in the House of Commons. So still a resounding victory and a mandate for the SNP, whatever you might hear elesewhere.
And until then…
Ach ‘s math dhomh bhith seo an drasd
A cur failt air a’ bhlas
‘San tir a tha cho you’re dhomh an diugh
Is a bha I nuair bha mi ‘nam phaisd
It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves
Our doubts are traitors and make us lose the good we oft might win by fearing to attempt
Boldness be my friend
Saor Alba gu bràth
Jeremy Blackwell, 8 June 2017