Dr Gary Gillespie, the Scottish Government’s Chief Economist, on the growth outlook for 20171:
Looking ahead, the outlook for growth in 2017 remains positive but at below trend growth.
There are emerging signs that confidence is returning to the oil and gas sector which, coupled with the structural improvements made by the industry since 2015, will put it on a stronger footing to take advantage of the opportunities which will emerge as cyclical factors improve.
The low value of Sterling is expected to support export led growth for the manufacturing sector, whilst continuing to rebalance the economy as rising import prices feed through to higher inflation, impacting real income growth and household consumption.
Brexit continues to present a significant risk to business and consumer sentiment in Scotland with investment sensitive to changing market signals. The range of independent forecasts for Scotland suggest growth of between 0.9% and 1.3% in 2017.
|Annual Output Growth Forecast (%)||2017||2018|
|Fraser of Allander Institute (Mar 2017)||1.2||1.3|
|EY ITEM Club (June 2017)||0.9||0.7|
|PWC (Mar 2017)||1.3||1.1|
- Source: State of the Economy report, published on 14 June.
- Growth in 2016 was 0.4%.